6 April 2006
Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern have unveiled their plans for securing devolved government for Northern Ireland.
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So the moment comes, as we always knew it would, for the ultimate decision. On Tuesday, we had a reminder of the past: an horrific, bloody murder. It represented all we have sought to escape from, these past nine years.
Today we have the possibility of deciding, over the next nine months, to make the future work.
Go back to the core of this issue for a moment - and it’s never wise to prolong this in the politics of Northern Ireland - recall the history. We are here in the island of Ireland that has been riven by strife between British and Irish for centuries.
In the early part of the last century, it was eventually partitioned. The larger part became the Republic of Ireland. The rest stayed part of the UK. But the struggle continued within that part: one tradition wanting a united Ireland; the other to remain in the UK; one predominately Catholic; the other predominately Protestant.
For decades up to 1998, the issue was marked by conflict, often of the most brutal kind. Politics here in Northern Ireland were divided not on the basis of ordinary political philosophy but on the core issue. Perpetual attempts were made to break out of this constraint but none with lasting success. The brutality continued.
Why did we manage to reach agreement in April 1998 on a basis to settle the struggle? Of course, there were acts of courageous political leadership. Of course, painstaking negotiation, often creatively deployed, allowed us to unravel knots of discord. Of course, the advent of new Governments and the pressure of the world to grasp resolution, played their part.
But what determined it, was something different and more profound. The people understood the futility of the status quo. They looked at the world around them, changing rapidly as the millennium drew to a close and realised that they were in danger of being left behind; that the way this struggle was being conducted was indeed brutal and bloody but most of all, it was unbearably old-fashioned, out of date, pointless. No-one was ever going to "win". "Winning" in the sense of the Unionists driven by bombs and terror into a united Ireland; or in the case of Republican and Nationalist sentiment cowed into accepting partition: was simply never going to happen.
The people, without necessarily articulating it in quite this way, understood it and empowered the politicians to move forward.
The basis of the GFA was actually one of mutual respect for a difference of view. Each tradition accepted the other had a right to think and feel differently. One had a right to believe in a united Ireland; the other to believe in the United Kingdom. Both had legitimacy. But neither could be pursued without the consent of the people, freely given.
The idea was then to make politics take the strain of resolving the issues of concern to the people in Northern Ireland within that framework of mutually acknowledged difference.
The GFA was a massive achievement. If it was naïve ever to think that, by it, all could be resolved with relative ease, then it is fair to say that perhaps only naivety could have emboldened us to aim so high; and without such ambition, we would have achieved nothing.
What has happened subsequently is an object lesson in all conflict resolution. I have dealt with all sides now for almost a decade. The problem is that agreements such as the GFA can provide procedures, mechanisms and laws. What they can’t do is enforce a belief in the other’s good faith. That can’t be forced. It can only come through genuine conviction.
Essentially, in the eight years since the GFA, that has been the issue. Of course it has manifested itself in endless wrangles over the procedures, mechanisms and laws. But the true problem has been that each side has believed in its own good faith but doubted that of the other. Naturally, most of the time, everyone has doubted the good faith of the Governments!
So unionism has often thought that republicanism was adopting a series of tactics in the name of peace; but its strategy was in reality still one of physical violence to circumvent the principle of consent. Republicanism believed it was making the most mighty moves to set aside the past and that unionism was only interested in peace not equality, and without equality there could be no proper peace.
Each side wanted certainty before moving. Each side’s uncertainty of the other’s certainty led to more uncertainty.
In October 2002, I asked for acts of completion. The ambiguity had to end.
Negotiation followed negotiation, the most recent intensive bout in December 2004. But then came the Northern Bank robbery and the McCartney murder, and uncertainty again set in. In July last year, the IRA announced its armed struggle was at an end. That was a move of huge significance. However, those earlier events still cast their pall. But now I feel, after months of desultory discussion, there is a renewed willingness to break the deadlock uncertainty has imposed.
How can this now be done? How can we make the ultimate decision?
We have today set out a framework beginning with the recall of the Assembly on 15May; but running up to November of this year for the ultimate decision to be made. At that point we close the chapter or close the book.
The details are set out in the joint statement.
But once again, it won’t be the details that settle this. This is a framework that only works if the parties choose to use it for proof of good faith, not to themselves and their own community but to the community of the other.
Unionism has to show Republican and Nationalist sentiment that it is serious about its commitment to share power; serious about equality; and serious about its recognition that republicanism has indeed changed and its leadership taken real and verifiable risks for peace. When, as will happen, dissident elements opposed to all we jointly seek to achieve, try to disrupt by the methods of the past, Unionism must play its part, in refusing to give those elements a veto over democracy.
Republicanism has to address the unionist community in a way that recognises that though of course there may be those within Unionism that hanker after the old days, the mainstream of Unionism is very clear: it is worried that violence is still in the culture of Republicanism and will re-assert itself, but does indeed want to put the past behind it and share power if it can be convinced it is doing so on a shared basis of democratic belief. So when the law is broken, then Republicans should play their part in bringing those who break it to account and support the police in doing so.
Above all, this is a moment to let the process be governed not by suspicion but by the faith that the other does want this to succeed. I don’t say suspicions will not still be there. Just don’t let them prevail, to the exclusion of the basic truth: people do want this to work.
In Northern Ireland over the coming years, crucial decisions will be taken on the economy, health, schools, local government. Is it not more sensible that they are taken by the directly elected representatives of the people those decisions will affect, not by Direct Rule?
The IMC will continue its work. It has said unequivocally that the IRA no longer poses a terrorist threat. That must be recognised for the vast leap forward it is. But there are real issues about criminality and normal policing, accepted as legitimate on all sides, with criminals pursued whatever their political allegiances, would go a long way towards convincing people that culture and attitude had changed decisively.
There is ample scope to find agreement if that is what people want. But be in no doubt. At the conclusion of this period, we either resolve to go forward on the basis of mature democracy or we call time on this and seek another way to go. Two things must be understood. There can be no room for compromise or ambiguity on the commitment only to exclusively peaceful and democratic means. Political argument is the only means of persuasion. That was set out clearly in the Belfast Harbour speech and remains.
On the other hand, however, there can be no way forward that does not recognise the legitimate aspiration of nationalists and republicans for a united Ireland; and give expression to it, through partnership, North and South.
In other words, the essence of the GFA, is valid. The question is: do the political parties in Northern Ireland lead its implementation or do the two governments, perforce have to step into the breach? Stasis is not an option. The option is whether the dynamic is driven by a hale and healthy democratic mandate derived from the people or by a necessarily more rigid will imposed from outside. We, the two Governments, can’t exercise that option. Only the people and parties in Northern Ireland can.
So the coming months will see a decision taken. One concluding thought: If it was a sense of the futility of the past and a desire to be part of the future, that has taken us this far; reflect please on how much more relevant that sense and that desire is today. Look at Britain and Ireland. Today, we are allies. Today we engage in common purpose in a new Europe. Today our rivalry is found in a healthy competition for which economy is more vibrant. Today there is a confidence and vitality in our relationship that has enabled us, after almost 70 or 80 years of mistrust, to work together to carry this process forward. And do so not as surrogate leaders of warring tribes, but as friends.
Today also Northern Ireland has seen more peace, stability and progress than was ever imaginable 10 years ago. Getting to here has taken many painful decisions. But in any process there is always the ultimate decision. It is yours to take.
You, the leaders here, have a far harder task than us. You have lived with the past, not just contemplated it. But now you and the people you represent have the power to decide. I ask you to use it wisely.
Question and answer session
Question: Prime Minister, Taoiseach, welcome to Navan. Obviously with all processes, everything tends to slide towards the end, so it looks like November 24th may well be the key date in what you’ve announced today. Could I just explore a couple of things about the end part of this process? You say that if it doesn’t work out you’ll have a new era of British/Irish partnership, enhanced North/South co-operation. Is there a concern that that could destabilise things on the Unionist side of the house, particularly in relation to the Loyalist paramilitaries and those who signed up to the fine balance that you achieved in 1998? Is there a concern that Nationalists won’t play ball with this new Assembly because they may think that they’re getting what they want at the end of all of this? And finally, Prime Minister, everyone’s always asking how long you’re going to stay in the job. Can you give us a guarantee you’ll be there for November 24th to oversee this?
Prime Minister: Congratulations on renewed ingenuity in the way of putting this question to me and forgive me if I say I think we’ve had enough of that one. On the whole question of how we take this forward supposing it fails, actually I think all we’re doing is just expressing the reality. Our responsibility is there if the parties can’t reach agreement but I don’t think anyone should be in any doubt at all, that is second best for everybody. There’s nobody who’s sensible, who’s been trying to work this over the last few years, that doesn’t recognise the importance of devolved institutions making the decisions in Northern Ireland. And there’s no party I’ve talked to in the whole course of this process who hasn’t preferred that to the two governments having to shoulder the responsibilities and that includes the two governments.
Question: Taoiseach, Prime Minister, when you spoke about dissidents and their attempts to undermine what you’re attempting to achieve, do you believe that’s who was behind the murder of Denis Donaldson? And secondly, a lot has been achieved on your watch. You’ve spoken about it. Is this the last throw of the dice as far as you’re both concerned in terms of establishing a devolved government in Northern Ireland on your watch?
Taoiseach: Obviously we will do everything we can. The Minister for Justice who is here today, Mike McDougall, and the Garda have already made it absolutely clear that they will carry out an intensive investigation to try and find who perpetrated this terrible deed. We have no intelligence, no information, to indicate who that is and of it’s as suggested retribution for some past event or some falling out along the way or whether it’s some dissident we don’t know and we’ll do everything that we can to try to find that out. It’s important to do so in any murder but I think it’s important in this one also. As far as when we’ve set out the position I don’t look at the end date in this. In fact I look at today, that this is the start of a process. I do not want to be here on 24th November thinking about another plan. What I want to do is far earlier than 24th November. I’d love it to happen very quickly but whatever way before that day that we will the restoration of accountable institutions in Northern Ireland with politicians back in the lead position. Of course because we’re the custodians of the agreement and of the responsibility to bring that forward, if that doesn’t work we have to take responsibility but it’s not something that I want to really have to do because if the two governments were doing that and the politicians, as they are now only marginally involved in politics in Northern Ireland because there’s no devolved government, then they’d be still in that position. And I’m an elected politician, the Prime Minister’s an elected politician, so to marginalise the whole political system is the last thing we’ve spent almost a decade on this between our periods in opposition and government would achieve. I would say that’s not much of a victory for anybody. So our whole effort is into seeing the politicians being in devolved, accountable arrangements as soon as possible and then all the other stranded agreements, which we’re totally embedded to, we could get on with them as well. I mean that’s what we want so after 24th November it’s another issue but everything I do between now and 24th November is to see this strategy work. This is our strategy.
Prime Minister: Obviously I agree with all of that but I have called this the ultimate decision and that’s because there comes a time when people have got to decide is this the way they’re going to run the affairs of Northern Ireland, indeed the island of Ireland, or not? And that’s the decision people have got to come to now because you know, I think people in Northern Ireland frankly would find it absurd, just carry on with the Assembly members and so on with nothing actually happening. So I think this is the period in which people are going to have to make this decision really.
Question: Prime Minister, Taoiseach, is there not a danger that you could be accused here of giving the DUP what they wanted, a shadow Assembly? Do you believe Ian Paisley will eventually do the deal? And thirdly, just how important is policing in getting this issue solved, Sinn Fein joining the Policing Board?
Prime Minister: Well first of all, I think what everybody wants is in fact the devolved institutions back up and running and there’s no shadow concepts in this really. The important thing is, because it’s in accordance with the agreement, is that it’s going to be up to people to make this work within these next few months. And yes, I would say the issue of policing is extremely important. I mean there are all sorts of institutional questions but the most basic question is this. Look, whatever happens over the next few months, there will be people who try to disrupt this process. There may be acts of terrorism or there may be acts of criminal activity but there will be people who try to disrupt it or who act in contravention of the basic principles that are motivating all of us to take this forward. The important thing is though they’re not allowed to do that and so the message - and this is why it’s very important what the Taoiseach has just said about the Garda and the recent murder - whoever is responsible for anything that is against the law, we pursue with the full rigour of the law and we expect everyone to support us and work with us in that endeavour. Now that is the way to ensure that these people don’t get a veto over the process because why should they have the veto over the democratic wishes of the majority of the people and I am sure the intentions and wishes of the main parties? So policing is important I think but it’s as important for that sense that everyone agrees the police should be supported in doing their job.
Taoiseach: Can I just say on the shadow end, I don’t think that argument can be honestly made. I agree with what the Prime Minister said on policing but the Assembly is being recalled on 15th May for a finite period with the responsibility of electing a First and Deputy First Minister and forming an Executive that has all the powers for that purpose, so it’s not a shadow Assembly. If you have the powers to form the Executive, it’s an Assembly with a mandate and a time-frame to prepare for government. So nothing could be more important.
Prime Minister: Yes.
Question: What do you think Ian Paisley is going to do?
Prime Minister: I can only go on what people say to us and my view is that Unionism, and that includes obviously the DUP, does recognise that if there is a commitment to exclusively democratic and peaceful means, it is their duty and responsibility to share power with those of a different view about the future of Northern Ireland. And I equally am quite sure that Republicans believe that the only way forward now to pursue their particular objective of a united Ireland is through the context of the arrangement set out in the Good Friday Agreement. That’s what I believe. So you know, the next few months will put this to the test. That’s why I say you come to the point where you’ve got to make a decision in the end. I mean everyone can speculate about each other’s good faith. I personally believe in the good faith of all the parties involved in this. The next few months will tell whether that is an overly optimistic view but we’ll see.
Question: Taoiseach, can I just ask you, you said you don’t want to be back here on November 24th looking for another plan. If you are on November 24th, how are the two governments going to implement the other aspects of the Good Friday Agreement and what does that mean for politicians in the north? Do they just become defunct at that stage?
Taoiseach: Well again just preface that by saying I’m here because we’ve put a huge amount of effort into the start of the issue and the immediate family and my meeting in No10, meeting on the margins of the summit, so we’ve put a lot of time and effort on our colleagues and the talks that Peter Hain and Dermot Ahern have been carrying out since the commencement of the year to get this strategy and implement this strategy. And it’s only if that doesn’t work that then you have to move on. And the Prime Minister has said obviously you have to move on. And as I said in my own words, we couldn’t come back to this unless the parties were to say at some future date into the future and maybe a long way into the future that they now agree and they’ll come back to that. I think that’s a very dangerous strategy to follow. So that’s why I want all our effort on this particular issue. But, as I said, the Good Friday Agreement was voted for by the people. We’re the custodians of it. The governments have a responsibility to implement the other aspects of it and we’d have to take that up but that’s not what I’d like to do. The politicians in Northern Ireland would have lost their remit and that would be a matter to be dealt with then.
Question: With apologies to all of those focused on Northern Ireland, I wonder if I could ask you very briefly to turn your attention to Scotland this morning and tell us how concerned you are about the outbreak of bird flu in that part of the United Kingdom?
Prime Minister: All I would say, is that the Scottish Executive and ourselves will take the measures that are appropriate, as indeed have been done in terms of cordoning off the area, and we will act according to the advice that we get. I do just emphasise one thing, it’s very important people understand this. This is not a human to human virus. It is something that is transmitted to poultry. It is only if humans are in direct and very intensive contact with poultry that there is any risk involved. So it’s just important people understand that. And as other countries have had to cope with this and take these preventative measures, we will do so. We act according to the best advice but I think it’s very important that people recognise that essential truth about the nature of what has happened.
Question: Prime Minister, you said in a statement that you’d be giving detailed work on the British/Irish partnership arrangements that will be necessary if there isn’t agreement by November. Can you tell us how these partnership arrangements will be different from the current partnership arrangements that already operate between the two governments and what roles the two governments will be taking over that you are hoping that the devolved Assembly would take over if they get going between now and November?
Prime Minister: Well I think the important thing is we just have to work together on this in the coming weeks but I think if I can just say - and this is one reason why we’ve put emphasis on the positive desire to get the parties to agree this - this is not what we want to have achieved. So when it’s appropriate, we may have to go into further detail about it but at the moment I think it’s best just to say, if it’s impossible to take this forward through the devolved institutions, we have a responsibility as governments to take it forward but that is not our preference and the work that we do on that hopefully will never be necessary.
Ends
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